Her new book, Waging Peace in Sudan, offers her insights into the process leading up to the 2005 Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA).
During her two terms as Norway’s Minister of Development (1997–2000 and 2001–2005), Ms. Johnson followed the Sudanese peace negotiations closely, and had unique access to the parties and talks.
The book was launched at an event at the Brookings Institution on January 6, followed by a panel discussion on the upcoming South Sudanese referendum on self-determination.
[See Hilde F. Johnson present the book on YouTube, and visit the book's website http://www.wagingpeaceinsudan.com/]
Post-Referendum Prospects
The referendum in South Sudan is scheduled for January 9.
In her remarks, Ms. Johnson speculated about the possible outcomes of the upcoming referendum – including the possibility of violence.
“If the referendum is not respected it could trigger a return to war between the North and the South. Khartoum is well aware of this. It is not likely that any of the two parties deliberately want to reignite Africa’s longest civil war. But it can still happen inadvertently if the outcome of the referendum is questioned, or seen as illegitimate, there will be outbreaks of violence.”
The critical factor, said Ms. Johnson, will be leadership on both sides and in the international community.
International Attention and Pressure
Among the panelists were Gayle Smith, Special Assistant to President Obama and Senior Director for Development and Democracy at the National Security Council, and Richard Williamson, former U.S. special envoy to Sudan.
Mr. Richardson focused on the deep-rooted historical causes of the conflict, and Sudan’s long history of marginalization and disenfranchisement.
“I think that the vision some people had when the CPA was signed was that we could move past the marginalization. And in my experience from talking with leaders in Khartoum, they recognize they lost that opportunity,” he said.
In her remarks, Ms. Smith emphasized the need for continued attention from the international community. She said that while the ‘Troika’ of the U.S., U.K. and Norway have been the most important outside actors supporting the Sudanese peace talks, the wider global community needs to be engaged in Sudan as well.